Bitcoin Macro Headwinds Easing, Sygnum Strategist Says; ETF Flows Seen Turning Positive in July

Macro pressures that weighed on bitcoin and drove its worst month for ETFs on record are receding, according to Can-Luca Köymen, investment strategist at Sygnum Bank. In emailed comments to CoinDesk, Köymen pointed to a rapid normalization in energy markets and signs of a softer policy tone as factors that, together, argue for rate-hike probabilities to reprice lower. He added that long-term holders have returned to net accumulation and whales have been building into weakness, while bitcoin trades below its 200-day moving average and beneath the previous cycle’s high — an entry point he views as relatively attractive. Sygnum expects ETF outflows to turn positive in July, though summer liquidity suggests any inflows will likely be modest.

What Happened

Köymen said the macro headwinds that had dominated into June are easing. Oil has fallen back below pre-war levels as the Strait of Hormuz reopened faster than expected and Gulf supply recovered, he noted, removing the energy-driven inflation impulse that pushed the Federal Reserve to a hawkish stance through June. Köymen also cited July 1 comments from Warsh acknowledging that inflation risks have come down, describing that as a tonal shift from the June dot plot. Alongside a softening labor market, these developments, in his view, point in the same direction.

Taken together, he said, the combination argues for rate hike probabilities to reprice lower — a backdrop that has historically mattered for risk sentiment. Within crypto specifically, Köymen highlighted that long-term holders have moved back to net accumulation and that whales have been building aggressively into weakness. He characterized this whale cohort as having historically timed entries better than newer, non-native investors accessing bitcoin via ETFs.

Market Reaction

While the strategist did not frame short-term price targets, he emphasized the setup that has emerged after a difficult stretch for bitcoin’s ETF segment. The market, according to his comments, just came through its worst ETF month on record amid the June macro backdrop. Against that context, bitcoin is trading below its 200-day moving average and beneath the previous cycle’s high — levels Köymen regards as making the current entry point relatively attractive.

On flows, Sygnum sees the environment shifting as July unfolds. The bank expects ETF outflows to turn positive in July. That said, Köymen cautioned that summer liquidity conditions mean any resulting inflows are likely to be modest rather than a flood.

Trading and On-Chain Activity

Köymen pointed to multiple on-chain and positioning signals that, in his assessment, are moving in the same constructive direction. Long-term holders have returned to net accumulation, indicating that the cohort typically least sensitive to short-term volatility is adding exposure. He also said whales have been building aggressively into weakness. As he described it, this larger, more crypto-native investor group has historically timed entries better than the newer, non-native investors who primarily access bitcoin via ETFs.

That divergence, set against a spot market trading below a key long-term average and below the prior cycle peak, forms part of the thesis he outlined. In practice, the combination of renewed accumulation by longer-horizon holders and active buying from whales into drawdowns can underpin liquidity on dips. Köymen’s read-through is not a guarantee of near-term outcomes; rather, he underscored the shift in behavior among investor segments that have, in past cycles, exerted influence over market inflection points.

Why This Matters Now

The core of Köymen’s case is timing. He argued that the very factors that pushed the Fed hawkish through June are easing: oil has retreated below pre-war levels, the Strait of Hormuz reopened faster than expected, Gulf supply recovered, and the energy-driven inflation impulse has abated. Layered on top are July 1 remarks from Warsh acknowledging that inflation risks have come down — which Köymen read as a tonal shift versus the June dot plot — and signs of a softening labor market.

In his view, the alignment of these developments supports a repricing of rate hike probabilities to the downside. For crypto market participants who track policy and liquidity dynamics, Köymen’s framing positions the current moment as a potential transition from a macro headwind to a less restrictive backdrop. That assessment is complemented, he said, by on-chain accumulation from investor cohorts often associated with early repositioning.

Broader Market Context

The strategist tied the recent pressure in bitcoin ETFs to the macro regime that dominated into June, describing it as the asset class’s worst ETF month on record. He noted that the energy-driven inflation impulse was a key driver of the Fed’s hawkish tone during that period. With oil back below pre-war levels and supply bottlenecks clearing more rapidly than anticipated in the Gulf, he said that impulse has diminished, reducing one of the more visible sources of inflation anxiety.

Beyond commodities, Köymen pointed to the policy conversation itself. He referenced Warsh’s July 1 comments acknowledging that inflation risks have come down and contrasted that with the signal investors parsed from the June dot plot. He further observed that labor market data are softening, which, together with the energy backdrop, signals a pivot in risk assessments that could matter for rate path expectations.

Implications for Investors and Traders

From Köymen’s perspective, several practical signposts emerge for market participants:

• Positioning: Long-term holders have returned to net accumulation, and whales are building into weakness. He emphasized that this whale cohort has historically timed entries better than newer ETF-driven investors.
• Technical context: Bitcoin is trading below its 200-day moving average and remains beneath the previous cycle’s high — levels he views as contributing to a relatively attractive entry setup.
• Flow dynamics: After the worst month on record for bitcoin ETFs, Sygnum expects ETF outflows to turn positive in July, while cautioning that summer liquidity implies any inflows will likely be modest rather than large.

Collectively, those points form the foundation of Sygnum’s near-term view. Köymen did not present a deterministic forecast; instead, he outlined the conditions he believes are changing on both the macro and crypto-native fronts and why those changes are important for traders who monitor policy, flows and on-chain behavior.

What’s Next

Köymen flagged one policy milestone on the calendar: a July 17 congressional hearing on the CLARITY Act, legislation that would establish clearer rules for crypto assets. He described it as a separate watch item and said that a surprise push toward passage could act as an additional catalyst.

Nearer term, he focused attention on whether rate-hike probabilities continue to reprice lower as oil remains below pre-war levels, Gulf supply stays recovered, and the policy tone evolves in the wake of Warsh’s July 1 comments and ongoing labor-market signals. In parallel, Sygnum will be watching how ETF flows develop through July under summer liquidity conditions and whether the accumulation by long-term holders and whales persists while bitcoin trades below its 200-day moving average and beneath the previous cycle’s high.

Köymen’s bottom line: several of the pressures that dominated into June have faded, crypto-native accumulation has reappeared, and the market may be entering a period where ETF flows stabilize. Whether those ingredients coalesce into a sustained shift will depend on how the macro narrative, policy expectations and investor behavior evolve over the coming weeks.