Bitcoin Eyes ‘W’ Reversal as John Bollinger Flags Potential Trend Break; US Spot ETFs See First Inflows in 10 Days

Bitcoin is attempting a “W”-shaped reversal highlighted by John Bollinger, creator of the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator, a setup he suggests could end a downtrend that has persisted since October 2025. The technical backdrop arrives alongside a turn in US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund flows, which saw their first net inflows in ten days on Friday, and as the newly reclaimed $60,000 level holds — an area traders say has absorbed significant selling pressure.

What Happened

In posts on X on Friday, Bollinger said he sees a “W”-shaped double bottom forming on BTC/USD. “$BTC has seen a series of bullish patterns broken, evidence of the power of the downtrend,” he commented, before asking: “Will this ‘W’ be the one that breaks the trend?” He shared a chart illustrating how the current structure aligns with the lower band of Bollinger Bands on daily time frames, describing the setup as “perfectly fractal” with smaller “w” patterns at the lows and a small “m” at the apex. He also pointed to a “W” on the weekly chart.

The “W”-shaped reversal pattern, as described in the source material, involves two swing lows separated by a failed rebound, with price ultimately clearing that interim rejection level to start a new uptrend. Bollinger, who has maintained a constructive stance on Bitcoin, revealed in early May that he had opened a new long position via his Bitcoin investment vehicle.

Market Reaction

On Friday, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their first net inflows in ten days. Trader Daan Crypto Trades noted that while the reported $220 million figure was “not massive,” the return of net buying could matter for price stability. He highlighted how “price has been holding this ~$60K region regardless of the many outflows,” adding that such persistence “will become meaningful if price does bounce further into next week as it means a lot of absorption has taken place.”

That view aligns with the narrative emerging among market participants who have monitored steady selling pressure through the recent stretch of ETF outflows. The positive daily net flow, even if modest by past peaks, suggests incremental demand may be returning just as a potential chart reversal is taking shape.

Trading and On-Chain Activity

Analyst Axel Adler Jr., a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, underscored the significance of re-emerging institutional interest. He characterized the backdrop succinctly: “Bitcoin is in the late stage of the bear cycle, but the ETF segment has for the first time signaled that the pressure is easing.” His assessment dovetails with the idea that renewed net inflows — after a run of outflows — can reduce the immediate supply overhang and support the spot market.

The interplay between ETF flows and spot price has been central to Bitcoin’s recent behavior. While the source material does not quantify on-chain movements beyond these observations, traders are focusing on whether net inflows persist and whether the $60,000 area continues to act as a base from which price can attempt a sustained move higher.

Why This Matters Now

Bollinger’s “W” observation is timely because it intersects with a clear, measurable shift in ETF demand and a well-watched price level. The downtrend in place since October 2025 has repeatedly overpowered bullish setups, as Bollinger himself noted. A convincing completion of the pattern — defined by a break above the interim rejection level — would mark a change in market character and could signal that the worst of the bear phase is behind, at least from a technical perspective.

At the same time, the first net ETF inflows in ten days and the market’s ability to hold the newly reclaimed $60,000 threshold add a flow-based and behavioral dimension to the technical picture. Together, they offer a cleaner test of whether buyers can reassert control after months in which rallies have been faded.

Broader Market Context

More price indicators have begun to flash conditions not seen since the 2022 bear market, according to prior reporting referenced in the source. Yet sentiment remains cautious: market participants broadly believe the next macro bottom is still ahead and is due in Q3 or later. That tension — improving signals set against expectations for one more washout — frames Bollinger’s “W” scenario as a potential pivot point. If the pattern completes, the bears’ grip since October 2025 could weaken; if it fails, the market may validate the view that a final leg lower still lies ahead.

Against this backdrop, Bollinger’s earlier disclosure of a new long position in early May through his investment vehicle underscores his constructive bias, even as he acknowledges the power of the prevailing downtrend. The market now has both a clearly defined technical structure and a timely flow read from ETFs to gauge whether conditions are genuinely turning.

Implications for Investors and Traders

For technically oriented traders, the mechanics of a “W” reversal provide a straightforward playbook: the pattern is generally recognized only after price pushes through the interim rejection level between the two lows, signaling trend change. Until that confirmation, risk management around the $60,000 area — the level highlighted in the source as newly reclaimed and showing signs of absorption — remains crucial.

From a flows standpoint, the $220 million in Friday net inflows, though described as “not massive,” matter because they break a ten-day run without net purchases and may indicate easing pressure. Whether those inflows persist, grow, or reverse will likely influence day-to-day positioning and confidence. Adler’s view that Bitcoin is in the late stage of the bear cycle offers a framework: improving ETF demand can relieve stress, which could in turn bolster support if the technical reversal continues to build.

What’s Next

Markets will look for follow-through on three fronts: continued signs of absorption around $60,000, additional days of positive or stabilizing ETF net flows, and technical confirmation of the “W” via a break above the interim rejection level identified within the pattern. Bollinger’s alignment of the structure with the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart — and his observation of a similar “W” on the weekly chart — gives traders multiple time frames to monitor for validation.

In the near term, any bounce “into next week,” as traders framed it, will be assessed against the persistence of ETF demand and the market’s ability to defend the reclaimed $60,000 area. If those elements hold together, they could provide the footing needed for the pattern to complete and for the downtrend since October 2025 to finally bend.