Bitcoin’s onchain backdrop is showing its strongest improvement since early February, but analysts warn that seller behavior and options positioning could complicate any push to fresh highs. In an analyst note to CoinDesk on Thursday, Bitfinex said constructive network signals are meeting pockets of profit-taking and derivatives dynamics that may fuel near‑term volatility rather than a sustained breakout.

Market Outlook

Bitfinex highlighted a notable shift among long‑term holders, whose bitcoin holdings have increased by 300% since the end of 2025 to nearly 4 million tokens. As prices rallied above $82,000 on May 11 and then slipped from $81,000 to the lower $79,000s on Thursday, these investors began realizing around $180 million in profits per day. Bitfinex characterized that as a moderate pace relative to prior cycles, suggesting selling remains controlled. The firm cautioned, however, that daily realized losses are still averaging $479 million, compared with about $200 million in quieter periods, and said the onchain recovery is not fully confirmed until losses compress toward that $200 million band.

Key Factors: Derivatives “Gamma Trap”

A key element underpinning the cautious stance is what Bitfinex described as a “gamma trap” in options. Citing data from Glassnode, the note pointed to nearly $2 billion in short gamma positions clustered around the $82,000 strike. As spot trades near that level, market makers hedging their exposures can initially amplify price swings and potentially squeeze bitcoin toward $82,000. Jason Fernandes, co‑founder at AdLunam, said this concentration creates a deceptive setup: “Dealer hedging can accelerate price toward that level, but once the squeeze exhausts itself, the same positioning can suppress momentum and act as resistance.” In his view, “gamma is currently amplifying the move, not necessarily validating it.”

Analyst Views: Flows and Participation

While onchain trends are improving, Bitfinex noted that “corporate buyers, by contrast, have gone quiet,” with major players purchasing very little bitcoin last week and overall purchase volume down 80% compared with last month. Fernandes flagged this divergence between price action and institutional participation as a major red flag. The caution was reinforced by fund flows: U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $635 million outflow on May 13, the largest single‑day exit since January. Together, the lighter corporate demand and negative ETF flows temper the bullish read from onchain improvements, according to the analysts cited.

Technical Landscape

Mati Greenspan, market analyst and founder of Quantum Economics, described the current “cost‑basis battlefield” between $79,000 and $85,000 as more of a transition zone than a firm ceiling. That framing aligns with Bitfinex’s observation that realized losses remain elevated even as long‑term holders take measured profits—conditions that can support two‑way trade and extended range‑bound behavior while the market searches for confirmation.

Macro Backdrop

Beyond market structure, analysts also pointed to the policy environment as a hurdle. On May 13, the U.S. Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair amidst rising 3.8% inflation, a development that Fernandes said has the market pricing in a “higher for longer” reality. “Kevin Warsh has already set expectations that there is unlikely to be a rate cut this year—it’s possible there may even be a rate hike,” he said. Against that backdrop, Fernandes added, “I just don’t see BTC reaching a new ATH this year unless something radically changes geopolitically.”

Near‑Term Path

Given the mix of constructive onchain signals, persistent realized losses, and muted institutional participation, Bitfinex analysts anticipate a quick move into the $82,000 to $84,000 area followed by a “period of neutralization.” Fernandes characterized the market structure as “incomplete capitulation,” arguing that a more durable advance likely requires flushing out the current $479 million in daily realized losses and a clear return of institutional conviction. Until then, he and other analysts cited in the note view $85,000 as the cycle’s primary “fair‑value battlefield,” a zone where flows, positioning, and hedging effects could continue to define bitcoin’s trajectory in the weeks ahead.

Overall, the outlook presented to CoinDesk frames bitcoin’s next phase as a balance between improving underlying metrics and a set of headwinds—option‑market gamma dynamics, subdued corporate demand, significant ETF outflows, and a policy regime tilted toward tighter financial conditions. Analysts say these cross‑currents argue for patience and careful attention to realized loss trends and flow‑of‑funds signals to gauge whether an attempted breakout can transition into a more durable trend.