CryptoQuant contributor Pelin Ay says XRP’s latest retreat appears tied to leverage flushes and broader market softness rather than a coordinated exit by large holders, pointing to a decline in Binance inflows—especially among million‑token transfers—as evidence that whale selling pressure has not intensified during the move.
Analyst Views
Ay based her assessment on a CryptoQuant chart tracking XRP Ledger inflows to Binance across value bands, plotted alongside XRP’s dollar price. The dataset segments deposits from less than 1,000 XRP to more than 1 million XRP, allowing observers to differentiate routine exchange top‑ups from transfers more consistent with whales or institutional‑scale wallets.
According to Ay, the largest cohort has often been pivotal for interpreting exchange activity. She noted that transfers exceeding 1 million XRP have periodically dominated the series, indicating that a meaningful share of Binance inflows historically originated from whale and institutional‑scale addresses. Persistently high readings in those columns between 2021–2025, she added, align with a period when major players were actively using Binance.
Key Factors
The change she highlights emerges in the aftermath of XRP’s 2025 peak. The chart shows a visible drop in the biggest Binance inflow bands following a stretch when price approached the $3 area. In exchange‑flow analysis, higher inflows are commonly read as potential sell‑side supply because assets sent to trading venues can be sold, posted as collateral, or otherwise repositioned into liquid markets.
Against that backdrop, Ay argues the current configuration does not mirror earlier phases marked by aggressive distribution. Historically, sharp market breaks were preceded by sudden spikes in the 100K–1M XRP and 1M+ XRP bands. By contrast, the most recent portion of the chart does not show an extraordinary acceleration in those large‑deposit columns, reducing the probability—on current evidence—of intense whale selling or widespread profit‑taking.
That distinction is central to her thesis. If the downswing were primarily whale‑led, the data would be expected to register a pronounced pickup in big deposits to Binance, especially from the 100,000–1,000,000 XRP and 1,000,000‑plus XRP groups. Instead, inflows have cooled while price has weakened, a combination Ay interprets as consistent with forced deleveraging and a softer market backdrop rather than deliberate distribution by large, patient holders.
Market Outlook
Ay adds that the pattern fits a scenario where liquidations and risk reduction drive price lower without the hallmarks of a deep capitulation wave. In her view, “normal hard bear markets” have usually coincided with much higher exchange inflows for XRP. The current absence of such surges, particularly in the largest value bands, supports the idea that spot supply from whales has not been rushing onto the market.
This does not eliminate downside risk. Instead, Ay’s reading emphasizes what is missing: a strong on‑chain signature of whales sending unusually large amounts of XRP to exchanges. Liquidation‑driven selloffs can accelerate quickly as leveraged positions unwind, but they do not necessarily imply that long‑term holders are actively distributing into weakness.
Future Trends
Ay links the post‑peak reduction in Binance inflows to a softer spot‑supply profile. If inflows remain depressed—especially in the 1M+ XRP column—she contends that selling pressure should ease. Under improving demand conditions, that structure could make it easier for XRP to revisit the $1.8–$2.0 region. The caveat is explicit: a renewed spike in the largest inflow bands would undermine this interpretation by signaling that major wallets are again moving sizable supply onto the exchange.
The conditional nature of the outlook is therefore crucial. The durability of muted large‑cohort inflows would support Ay’s argument that the latest leg lower owes more to leverage dynamics and the broader market than to whales exiting. Conversely, a measurable upswing in 100K–1M XRP and 1M+ XRP deposits would point to shifting behavior among bigger holders and warrant a reassessment of the risk picture.
At press time, XRP traded at $1.1444. A separate price chart accompanying the analysis indicated that XRP could drop to $1 on the 1‑week timeframe, underscoring the possibility of further volatility even as on‑chain inflow signals from large wallets have cooled.
Charts referenced: CryptoQuant inflow bands for Binance and XRPUSDT on TradingView.com. Featured image created with DALL.E; chart from TradingView.com.
