Bitcoin could be poised for a deeper pullback, according to market commentator Merlijn The Trader, who highlighted a repeating midterm election-year pattern that he says points to a substantial decline and, in the most severe outcome, a slide toward $33,000. His remarks arrived after bitcoin was rejected near $82,000 earlier this week and then slipped to a 15-day low around $78,000, a sequence that has sharpened bearish debate across Crypto X and revived the familiar “Sell in May and go away” refrain among digital asset traders.

Market Movement

The latest shift in tone follows a swift reversal from the $82,000 region, where buying momentum faded and sellers pressed prices back to $78,000. That retreat, which marked the lowest level in more than two weeks, put immediate focus on whether $78,000 can stabilize as support. The loss of altitude was enough to reignite caution on social platforms and in trading chats, where short‑term participants dissected the rejection and weighed the odds of further downside if the market cannot establish a firm base above current levels.

Merlijn’s assessment centers on what he characterizes as a historically difficult stretch for bitcoin in midterm election years. The timing of the move—coming in May—added weight to seasonal concerns already circulating in risk markets. While the pullback from the $82,000 area to $78,000 is modest in percentage terms, the speed of the shift and the clustering of attention around a single price shelf have intensified scrutiny of near‑term support and resistance, as traders reassess positioning and liquidity around those levels.

Key Drivers

In a series of posts, Merlijn noted that bitcoin underperformed sharply in the three prior midterm election years. By his tally, the asset fell 61% in 2014, 65% in 2018, and 66% in 2022—three sizable drawdowns that he framed as a recurring pattern with no exceptions so far. Extrapolating from that history, his worst‑case projection for the current cycle points toward $33,000. The argument rests less on immediate headlines and more on the calendar itself, with the analyst emphasizing that the historical window has repeatedly aligned with pronounced weakness.

He also acknowledged that some potentially supportive elements exist today, citing the advancing CLARITY Act and reported deals between the US and China as developments that could underpin sentiment. Nevertheless, his central contention remains that the midterm election‑year backdrop has dominated past outcomes and, if it repeats, could still overwhelm such countervailing influences. The emphasis on seasonality and prior cycles has resonated with traders who monitor recurring market patterns, even as others point to the current macro and policy mix as a possible buffer.

Investor Reaction

Reaction on Crypto X turned distinctly cautious after the rejection at $82,000 and the quick reset to $78,000. Several market watchers circulated their own scenarios for additional declines, and Merlijn’s view joined that broader conversation. In a post dated May 17, 2026, he reiterated the midterm election‑year pattern and its prior drawdown magnitudes, positioning the message as a warning not to underestimate the potential scope of a downturn if the setup plays out in similar fashion.

He then laid out an alternative, less severe roadmap that references bitcoin’s 2021 playbook. In that framework, he described six sequential phases and suggested the market may currently sit in an Accumulation stage—his step four. If the present path continues to mirror that earlier period, his downside targets in this scenario cluster between $45,000 and $59,000. The distinction between the two roadmaps—the midterm pattern pointing to $33,000 versus the 2021‑style sequence pointing to $45,000–$59,000—has given traders a pair of reference ranges to watch as price action unfolds.

Across these discussions, one pivot stands out: $78,000. Merlijn characterized that level as the key support currently under examination. In his view, a decisive break below it could accelerate a move toward his stated targets. Conversely, if bitcoin can defend that shelf, he argued the market might bypass step four of his 2021‑inspired progression, bringing the next advance closer than currently anticipated.

Broader Impact

For market participants, the implications of these scenarios are straightforward yet consequential. The midterm election‑year pattern frames a wide downside corridor, with $33,000 as a tail‑risk outcome if historical behavior reasserts itself. Even the less bearish path envisions meaningful retracement into the $45,000–$59,000 band. Both ranges, if approached, would represent sizable departures from recent spot levels and would likely reset expectations around momentum, leverage, and liquidity across crypto trading venues.

The “Sell in May” motif, repeatedly invoked in risk markets, has also gained traction in digital assets whenever spring price action stalls. In the current instance, the turn lower from $82,000 and the quick test of $78,000 have concentrated attention on whether seasonal and cycle dynamics are again guiding the tape. That question has near‑term significance for day‑to‑day flows and a longer‑horizon bearing on how investors frame the remainder of the year in a midterm context.

Merlijn’s two‑track outline—one scenario governed by the midterm calendar and another echoing bitcoin’s 2021 sequence—places clear milestones in view. Traders attentive to the $78,000 line will be watching for signs of resilience or failure at that point. A hold would support the case that the market can compress or skip parts of the 2021‑style path and reassert upward momentum sooner. A breakdown, by contrast, would push focus toward the zones he highlighted further below, with the pace and depth of any follow‑through likely dictating whether the 2021 or the midterm pattern becomes the more dominant lens.

For now, the discussion remains centered on those inflection points rather than on fresh catalysts. The analyst’s message is that history, not headlines, is setting the tone. With the $82,000 rejection and the subsequent 15‑day low at $78,000 fresh in memory, market participants are treating the coming sessions as a test of whether bitcoin can stabilize at support or whether the weight of past midterm election‑year behavior will reassert itself. The answer, he suggests, will determine whether the market’s next major move resembles the steep declines of previous midterm years or the more measured 2021‑style pullback into the $45,000–$59,000 range.

As that debate continues, positioning and sentiment appear geared around the same hinge: $78,000 as the immediate battleground, $45,000–$59,000 as the intermediate waypoints in a softer downturn, and $33,000 as the furthest extension of the bearish template. With the calendar and prior cycles doing most of the talking in this analysis, the market’s task is to confirm or refute those patterns in price.