A crypto analyst says a long‑running “Golden Triangle” on the Ethereum (ETH) chart is nearing its apex, setting up a potential breakout that could define the cryptocurrency’s next major move. The structure, which the analyst contends has guided ETH through both bullish and bearish phases for almost nine years, frames two clear scenarios: a decisive move higher or a breakdown to lower levels.

Analyst Views

The market commentator, known as “Merlijn The Trader” on X, outlined the pattern and his outlook in a post shared on April 24. He argues that Ethereum has been trading within a Golden Triangle since 2017, two years after the network’s 2015 launch, and that the formation has repeatedly contained price swings throughout multiple market cycles. In the analysis, a chart captioned “ETHUSD now trading at $2,316” from TradingView accompanied the commentary.

According to Merlijn, the triangle has held firm despite episodes that typically disrupt technical structures. He cites the 2020 COVID crisis—when cryptocurrencies experienced steep declines—as an example of extreme volatility that nonetheless failed to dislodge ETH from the pattern. He adds that the formation remained intact after Ethereum’s surge to an all‑time high above $4,800 in 2021 and through the subsequent 2022 bear market. Even after what he describes as a peak in 2026 and a subsequent major correction, the structure, in his view, did not break.

Market Outlook

The analyst believes Ethereum is moving closer to the triangle’s apex, the point where the converging trendlines tighten and a breakout often occurs. From there, he frames two possibilities. If price thrusts above the upper boundary, he anticipates continuation to higher levels. If price slips below the lower boundary, he foresees a slide toward clearly defined support.

In other words, the pattern’s endurance across cycles is central to his thesis: the longer ETH respects the formation, the more significant the eventual resolution could be. This perspective underpins both his upside and downside projections as the market approaches what he characterizes as a decisive phase.

Bullish Scenario

In the bullish case, Merlijn expects an upside break to propel ETH beyond $4,350, setting the stage for a measured target around $10,000. He links this outlook to the Golden Triangle’s longevity, suggesting that a breakout from a formation maintained since 2017 could carry momentum over an extended period. His roadmap envisions Ethereum trending higher—albeit with intermittent pullbacks—toward considerably elevated valuations.

Looking further ahead, the analyst sets out an ambitious longer‑term price target above $56,000. He places that projection in 2028, implying that, if the market resolves to the upside, the advance could unfold over the next two years. The emphasis throughout is on scenario planning rather than guarantees: the upside pathway depends on the triangle breaking in favor of the bulls and then continuing to hold as support on any subsequent retests.

Bear Case

Merlijn also details the opposite outcome. Should ETH break below the triangle’s lower boundary, he expects a move toward $1,950. He notes that Ethereum is currently trading above $2,300 following a recent rally of more than 36%, which means a decline to $1,950 would represent a drop of over 15% from those levels. Under this scenario, a failed support test would shift focus to how price behaves around that downside target and whether sellers can maintain control.

While he acknowledges this risk, the analyst maintains that an upside resolution “may be the likely scenario,” reiterating that the multi‑year durability of the Golden Triangle informs his bias. Still, the near‑term direction hinges on how price behaves as it approaches the apex, where volatility around the breakout point can lead to sharp moves in either direction.

Key Factors

Across both scenarios, the same reference points anchor the analysis: the Golden Triangle’s origins in 2017, the pattern’s resilience during the 2020 COVID crisis and the 2022 bear market, ETH’s all‑time high above $4,800 in 2021, and what the analyst describes as a peak in 2026 followed by a significant correction. Merlijn’s view is that the structure’s ability to contain these episodes strengthens the signal as the market nears a resolution.

As with all market forecasts, the projections described here reflect one analyst’s interpretation of price action and chart structure. They are not assurances of future performance. The outlook emphasizes conditional paths—one higher, one lower—defined by how ETH trades as it tests the boundaries of a formation that, according to the analyst, has shaped the market for nearly a decade.